UFC 280 roundtable: What does a win mean for the legacies of Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev?

If UFC 279 was marked by uncertainty and questions (namely “Why was the cardboard booked the best way it was” and later “What is going on???”), then UFC 280 is way more traditional as compared so far as stakes are concerned: Two title fights, a predominant card full of ranked fighters, and immortality possibly on the road for a minimum of one headliner.

Charles Oliveira looks to regain the title he never lost within the cage, Islam Makhachev looks to prove that his dominance is as advertised, and Aljamain Sterling looks to stop T.J. Dillashaw from becoming UFC champion for a 3rd time. Plus, Petr Yan, Sean O’Malley, Beneil Dariush, and Manon Fiorot could all be fighting to earn title shots.

There’s loads to unpack with one of the loaded events of 2022, and MMA Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee, Damon Martin, and Jed Meshew are here to interrupt down the three biggest storylines from an event that might produce ripples felt for years to come back.

Islam Makhachev

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

What does a win at UFC 280 mean for the legacies of Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev?

Lee: Let’s make one thing clear: Even when Charles Oliveira smokes Islam Makhachev in 30 seconds, that doesn’t make him the best lightweight of all-time.

Nevertheless, it does set him up for a fight with the lightweight GOAT: Khabib Nurmagomedov.

This isn’t the primary time I’ve proposed the speculation that “The Eagle” has just been biding his time for the precise comeback fight (in actual fact I’m probably a broken record at this point), one which stokes his competitive fires and even has a component of revenge to it. What matchup matches the bill higher than returning to the octagon to not only get one back for his boy, but to also snuff out the suggestion that he’s not the very best to ever do it at 155 kilos? Nurmagomedov has given no indication that he has any intention of fighting again, but he’s only 34 years young as of this past September. He ain’t done.

However, Makhachev could completely destroy this fantasy scenario if he beats Oliveira together with his usual machine-like efficiency. The Dagestani wrestling beast has been called a Khabib-lite of sorts in essentially the most complimentary way possible, and defeating Oliveira would supply an infinite boost to a résumé that’s just wanting elite. Forget UFC gold, Makhachev could start carving own area of interest within the lightweight GOAT discussion if he beats Oliveira.

Martin: Charles Oliveira is already the very best lightweight on the planet, but when he’s capable of vanquish the second coming of Khabib Nurmagomedov, it means in about 18 months, he would have worn out nearly every top-ranked fighter on the planet at 155 kilos.

Take into consideration that for a second.

If Oliveira is successful, he could have beaten Makhachev, Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, and Michael Chandler in 4 consecutive fights. At worst, that puts him in the identical conversation as Nurmagomedov as the best lightweight to ever compete within the UFC.

Yes, Oliveira has an entire lot of losses on his record so it could be tough to ever see him pass up a fighter who retired undefeated while dropping perhaps two or three rounds total in his entire UFC profession. Still, Oliveira’s level of dominance and ending power is unmatched, and beating Makhachev will put him in the identical vicinity as Nurmagomedov, who can’t add anymore accolades to his resume after retiring from competition.

It’s highly unlikely watching Makhachev lose would suddenly change Nurmagomedov’s mind about fighting again, but he would absolutely see a challenge to his claim because the GOAT.

As for Makhachev, a win over Oliveira does one thing and one thing only — it justifies the hype that’s been constructing around him during this long unbeaten streak.

Not only has Nurmagomedov been his biggest cheerleader as coach and mentor, but Makhachev has legends of the sport like Daniel Cormier praising him like he’s already the very best fighter to ever placed on a pair of gloves within the octagon. Despite all those compliments, Makhachev hasn’t really faced the extent of competition to justify his position yet.

Sure, he’s beaten some solid opponents, but nowhere near the murderer’s row that Oliveira has undergone up to now couple of years. Makhachev will back up every part that everyone near him has said with a single win over Oliveira at UFC 280.

Meshew: If Oliveira wins, it makes him essentially the most interesting man in lightweight history. And when Islam wins, it ends the controversy about Khabib being the GOAT. Oh, and I assume it’s pretty cool for Islam too.

Since the lightweight division is the hardest in the game, and has been since its inception, the 155 GOAT conversation is incredibly muddled. Nobody has that many title defenses, and everybody (not named Khabib) has a bunch of losses, which implies you will discover fault with anyone. This is particularly true for Oliveira, who’s on a sensational run immediately, but was pretty middling before that. Still, the run is so good that beating Makhachev undeniably puts him within the conversation for lightweight GOAT. I still won’t have him ranked as such because Khabib was the very best lightweight on Earth for six years while Oliveira has held the title for one, but you’ll be able to’t deny he’d have a case. And at lightweight, having a case is absolutely all anyone can ask for.

As for Makhachev, a win does all of the things a title win does for any first-time winner, however it does more for those around him, actually. A win completes the late Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov’s master plan, further entrenches Dagestan as certainly one of the good MMA hubs on the planet, and ends the challenges to Khabib’s title as GOAT. Rightly or wrongly, Makhachev won’t ever get into the GOAT conversation due to his earlier loss and since he was second fiddle to Khabib. Even when he runs up six title defenses and Khabib himself says Islam is the very best (each possible), the general public will largely have a look at it in the easy terms that Islam was higher than everyone else, but he still wasn’t higher than Khabib.

Aljamain Sterling

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Which bantamweight will make the most important statement?

Martin: There’s loads riding for the bantamweight division at UFC 280 between a title fight and a former champion battling arguably essentially the most talked about prospect since a certain Irishman got here strutting into the promotion nine years ago. But as much as Sean O’Malley beating Petr Yan would upset the apple cart and T.J. Dillashaw reclaiming a title he lost after he just couldn’t stop putting a needle in his ass would mean, the true answer to this query is the reigning and defending UFC bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling.

Despite every part he’s done to cement himself as the very best 135-pounder within the UFC, it feels as if Sterling is all the time ice skating uphill on the subject of his perception amongst fans and his fellow fighters. He tapped out Cory Sandhagen inside 90 seconds, yet that didn’t earn him much favor going into his first title fight opportunity against Yan.

He took an illegal knee from Yan and couldn’t proceed, yet by some means Sterling ended up looking more just like the villain than the guy who actually cheated! When he returned 13 months later, Sterling placed on among the finest performances of his profession to beat Yan and yet his win has been called a fluke or a present of bad judging, neither of that are remotely true.

If Sterling can exit and beat Dillashaw — a longtime bantamweight legend, who can have even been chemically enhanced along the best way — that ought to do good enough to shake loose the last doubters who just refuse to provide him any respect. Sure, Sterling will still have his justifiable share of haters, but dispatching Dillashaw after already handling Yan and Sandhagen should a minimum of silence the trolls for a little bit while.

Meshew: It’s going to be a press release that nobody wants to listen to, but the reply is T.J. Dillashaw.

I believe I’m higher on Sterling than most individuals are (I’m certainly one of the few who stood by his first title win as legitimate and firmly scored the rematch for him), but this will not be matchup for him. Whatever you’re thinking that of Dillashaw, the dude is a rattling good fighter, with a really tricky style, and I’m struggling to see how Sterling finds consistent offense. Dillashaw is a wonderful defensive wrestler and his movement makes taking him down even tougher. And while Sterling has steadily improved on the feet, he’s still obviously uncomfortable standing. I see Dillashaw form of styling on Sterling like he did to Renan Barao, delivering certainly one of his best performances and reminding everyone that he never lost his bantamweight belt within the cage.

I’ll also say that there was a really real a part of me that wanted to select Sean O’Malley here. I believe Petr Yan might be the “best” bantamweight on the planet (i.e. I’d pick him in a 3rd fight with Sterling) but that’s in five-round fights. Three rounds changes the maths, and Yan’s style is significantly better suited to longer fights. O’Malley is generally a quick starter and so I can easily see Yan giving the primary round away, at which point O’Malley only must win certainly one of the ultimate two frames. Together with his length and offensive acumen, that is unquestionably possible, though perhaps not probable.

Lee: He’s the bottom ranked of all of the bantamweights in discussion, but when the dust settles at UFC 280, there’s probability that Sean O’Malley is the person everyone seems to be talking about.

Aljamain Sterling silencing what stays of the doubters with a definitive victory over T.J. Dillashaw could be big, Dillashaw becoming champion again could possibly be just as big, and Petr Yan dispatching O’Malley could be expected. But O’Malley taking out a former champion and certainly one of the three best bantamweights on the planet? Which may make O’Malley the most important star of the entire event, forget just in his division.

From the moment Dana White first saw him on Contender Series, the UFC president has been dazzled by “Sugar” — and to O’Malley’s credit, he’s taken that initial push and run with it. He’s lost only once in nine UFC outings, and more importantly he’s cultivated a youthful fan base that few other fighters can boast. Whether people tune in to look at his entertaining striking style or are praying for his downfall, O’Malley draws eyeballs.

I don’t know if O’Malley can pull off the upset, but he has essentially the most to realize out of anyone competing at UFC 280 if he does. The favored theory is that O’Malley is next in line for a title shot, and if he beats Yan, I’ll actually imagine that he can win it.

Manon Fiorot

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC

Outside of the highest 3 matchups, what’s essentially the most intriguing fight of this stacked card?

Meshew: The true answer might be Katlyn Chookagian vs. Manon Fiorot, but since MMA fans have a pointed disinterest in “Blonde Fighter,” I won’t die on that hill. As a substitute, I’m selecting the functional lightweight title eliminator between Beneil Dariush and Mateusz Gamrot.

I really like Gamrot. KSW champions will all the time have a special place in my heart and his fight with Arman Tsarukyan earlier this 12 months was among the finest fights of 2022. He puts on a hell of a pace, wrestles his ass off, and just generally excels in any respect the little things I really like in MMA. But I actually have serious questions on whether he can do those things to Beneil Dariush.

With Leon Edwards having won the welterweight title, Dariush now takes over the mantle of most underrated fighter in MMA. He’s won seven in a row, all good wins, and with some really fun performances. A world-class grappler, Dariush has added a legitimately dangerous striking game to the combo, and so he presents serious dangers to Gamrot. Most significantly though, assuming I’m correct in my belief that Islam Makhachev becomes the brand new lightweight champion, this fight is for the subsequent title shot.

Alexander Volkanovski has his own division to take care of (he’s only beaten three currently ranked guys!), and Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler have already had their shot. If Oliveira wins, Conor McGregor might be getting it because we follow a broken sport where the higher you do, the less serious you develop into. But Makhachev is from the Nurmagomedov school of fighting: You fight the dudes who deserve it. The winner of this may deserve it, and God willing, that man will get his probability.

Lee: I’d lean towards Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot, but I’m not convinced that Dariush can do anything to persuade the UFC that he deserves a title shot, in order that immediately dulls a few of the intrigue for me.

More prone to get a championship opportunity with a powerful performance? Manon Fiorot.

Undefeated in her past nine fights and 4-0 within the UFC, Fiorot is such an intriguing contender at 125 kilos, and that’s not something you get to put in writing often while you’re talking a few division ruled over by Valentina Shevchenko. There’s enough mystery surrounding Fiorot that it’s possible she could present a difficult puzzle for Shevchenko, but in addition enough game tape that picking her for the upset wouldn’t be an entire shot in the dead of night.

All she has to do now’s beat Katlyn Chookagian, one of the consistently confounding gatekeepers within the UFC. Chookagian’s high-volume, low-impact style might infuriate fans, but guess what? It wins fights. And within the UFC, that matters greater than anything. She has had her issues with accurate power punchers, an outline that matches Fiorot to a tee, but she’s also stifled the title hopes of many aspiring flyweights.

Apart from O’Malley, Fiorot is the surest bet to book herself a future title fight with a win at UFC 280.

Martin: On paper it’s Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot, because those two should throw down in a seriously entertaining contest that might secure the winner a title shot. But that’s the straightforward answer. That’s why I’m going with Belal Muhammad vs. Sean Brady, which headlines the preliminary card ahead of the pay-per-view.

While Khamzat Chimaev keeps stealing all of the headlines at welterweight despite perhaps not even being a welterweight any longer, Muhammad is by far essentially the most criminally underrated fighter at 170 kilos. He’s put together an eight-fight unbeaten streak capped off by a pair of suffocating performances over Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson and Vicente Luque.

By all accounts, Muhammad has been improving at the same time as he climbs higher within the rankings, yet no person ever calls his name. He should probably be facing someone in a No. 1 contender’s fight, but as a substitute he’s taking up a really dangerous opponent in Brady in what amounts to a high-risk, low-reward situation.

That’s what makes this such an intriguing matchup, not to say that Brady is absolutely freaking good (yet by all accounts, most fans couldn’t pick him out of a line up consisting of two people). This fight is Brady’s probability to cross over from anonymity to relevance, especially on the subject of the welterweight division.

The winner won’t be getting a title shot, however it puts that person in a novel position to — at worse — call for a fight against an opponent that can earn them that chance. Whether it’s Khamzat, Colby Covington, or perhaps even the loser out of Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards 3, either Muhammad or Brady will likely be in a main position in certainly one of the hardest weight classes in the game heading into 2023.